Build
Write the thesis in one sentence: the claim, why you think it is misunderstood, and the catalyst that would change the market’s mind.
“What do I believe that is actually checkable?”
Method
Five steps from idea to a written decision.
A red team’s job is to break the plan before a real opponent does. Here the opponent is your own enthusiasm.
Attack
Steelman the bear case and run a pre-mortem. If you cannot argue against the idea, you do not understand it yet.
“Six months later, this failed. Why?”
Plan
Set the falsifier, the risk you can live with, and what you will do if the kill criteria print. Do it while you are still calm.
“What would prove me wrong?”
Decide
Advance, wait, or pass from the page you wrote, not from the tip or the feeling. The decision is yours. This site will not make it for you.
“Would I still care about this if nobody were talking about it?”
Review
Grade the process, not just the outcome. Careful decisions can lose and sloppy ones can win. Learn from both.
“What did I miss, and what changes next time?”
Thesis
The claim in one sentence, with the fact that would have to be true.
Red team
The best argument against it, including the contract, customer, or date you were treating as a footnote.
Review
Grade the process, not just the outcome. Unresolved is allowed. A target return is not.
Educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Red Team Academy provides investing education only. Nothing on this site is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, and nothing here promises or projects a return. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Examples are hypothetical and labeled that way. Market data may be delayed. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.