Free · on this page

Red team your thesis.

Eight prompts. About fifteen minutes per idea. The point is to find the hole while being wrong is still free.

3 pages when printed · 8 sections · no email required

Educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Red Team Academy provides investing education only. Nothing on this site is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, and nothing here promises or projects a return. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Examples are hypothetical and labeled that way. Market data may be delayed. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Nothing you type is saved or sent. Use print if you want a paper copy.

01Thesis + catalyst

Write the claim in one sentence. What do you believe, and what event or fact would change other people’s minds?

02Bull case

Steelman the claim. What would have to stay true for the idea to keep making sense? Separate facts you can check from the story.

03Bear case

Argue the other side harder than a skeptic would. If you cannot write a serious bear case, you do not understand the claim yet.

04Kill criteria

What observable fact would make the claim false? Write it now, while nothing is at stake.

05Risk plan

What can you afford to lose on this idea without it changing your life, and what will you do if the falsifier prints? This is a risk decision, not a forecast of return.

06Tip check

Where did the idea come from? If you only have someone else’s conclusion, it is still a tip. What work is yours?

07Verdict

Advance, wait, or pass. This is your process call. It is not a recommendation from Red Team Academy, and it is not a prediction.

08Post-trade review

Afterward, grade the decision, not the result. Did you follow what you wrote? A careful decision can lose. A sloppy one can win.

Want a lesson now? Start in Learn.